An industry economist and three fleet executives shared their thoughts on the outlook for trucking and trucking equipment in the near future at the Avondale Partners Trucking Forum in Dallas at the 2011 Commercial Vehicle Outlook Conference.  

Recognizing public fears over a double-dip recession and lack of investor confidence, Donald Broughton, Avondale Partners managing director, says such angst may be premature.

“Right now there’s market uncertainty, but freight flow says otherwise,” says Broughton, pointing out that there hasn’t been a contraction in the economy without a contraction in freight volume. “Unless it really is different, freight signals continued expansion in the economy. Intermodal, air freight and carloads figures also point to growth period, not contraction.”

Broughton also noted that elimination of roughly 12 percent of truck capacity through trucking failures during the last recession and fleet downsizing by existing carriers should help elevate freight rates.

Regulatory pressures such as the Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration’s Compliance Safety Accountability (CSA) program and proposed hours-of-service changes are having an impact on driver recruiting and productivity.

“The demand for brand new drivers will increase because they come with a clean CSA score,” says Marc Rogers, senior vice president-van truckload for Schneider National. “That is an advantage to companies, but the risk is how those drivers will perform.”