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Forecast: Driver shortage looming
April 8, 2010
| by: Max Kvidera
Beginning this year and continuing into 2012, there will be a shortage of truck drivers, the result of a modestly growing economy and tighter government regulation of drivers. In turn, the shortage will create trucking capacity problems in the years ahead.
That’s the forecast of Noel Perry, managing director and senior consultant at FTR Associates, presented April 8 at an FTR online freight outlook seminar.
Perry noted carriers have cut overhead by removing trucks from service and laying off drivers, and have been slow to reverse the trend. “It’s almost certain that as the marketplace expands, even slowly as we’re forecasting, there will be a driver shortage,” Perry said. “If there’s a driver shortage, that means there’s a truck shortage.”
Perry estimated the driver shortage could be close to 200,000 this year and could grow to about 400,000 in 2011 and 2012. The trucking economist forecast trucking growth of 4 to 6 percent over the next three years, a good growth rate compared with average figures for the last 30 years but conservative measured against previous upturns, during which growth in some quarters reached 10 percent or better.
“Despite conservative growth estimates, we are explicitly forecasting capacity problems,” Perry said.
He said the capacity shortage will result because the demand for drivers will exceed the system’s ability to provide drivers. “We’re not talking about availability of candidates but the industry’s ability to process candidates,” Perry said, including training, drug testing and processing.
Current heavy truck capacity utilization is slightly above 75 percent and will have to get at least to 85 percent before it will have an impact on truck sales. “It’s going to take a long time before we get up to significant new truck sales,” Perry said.
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Ya shortage the dot & gov & companeys did it to them selfs, stop makeing it hard for truckers to do there driveing job, lets do back ground checks on thoes cats for a change, we need auto transmission in trucks, super single tires, paperless logs aero dian front ends , trailers lower to the grown, and so on .
Auto Transmissions, what a joke!!!
Well if the MTO stopped suspending are license,s for every little problem,maybe there would,nt be a shortage, so much harrasment, they should drive them, themself,? it’s a terrible job now,,,no money now!,,, long hour’s
so many rule’s! why is it o/o have to work so many hour’s,,,,I’ll tell you cause there’s no money in the bussiness,so if you guy’s stop pretending there is, cut this cut that, tell the truth, the buisness is so regulated,you just can’t make money at it…. so tell it like it is!
DRIVERS SHORTAGE, come on, average miles per week 2500 times 31 cents, $775 minus taxes 200$ =575 and you have to work 65 hours a week, with driver manager, safety guy,and shipper treating you if you are worst than a diswasher and police radars, scales. dot, inspection trying to ruin your license beCAuse of budget cuts. you know they are going after truckers for 300 $ tickets and if you are an owner op, 12 cts fuel surcharge, they pay you 2500 miles and you frive 2700 miles so 200 miles extra for free, about the frel on 200 miles, shop labor $120 an hour, drive tires $ 350 each , steer tires $450 each, oil change 235$ then IRS takes all your money at the end, soooooooooo this business is worst than being a dishwasher , at least i dii got more respect everything i was asked to do it did come with a please, and free food, good food not like trash of j and t/a , and making 10$ an hour times 55 hours 550 a week, and every day home CLEAN TAKING SHOWERS EVERY DAY.
Very well said.
the feds think we will continue to drive these trucks no matter what. the political hogwash is so deep it’s crazy. i started trying to get out of a truck 20 years ago, but i’m still here.however i have drawn the line. push a little more and i’m gone–never to come back. i have also taught my children and grandkids to do something besides drive a truck. they have. i wrote a book and am currently working on other things, all to get out of trucking. check it out jameswcole.com
th ey say your a proffessional driver but your treated like garbage.add up the hrs you work and what you bring home its less than minimum wage.then they dont want you to idle truck a some companies tell you 20degrees and lower you can idle i bet they wouldnt want there kids sleeping in truck thats below freezing or even 40degrees.you work for nothing all the time filling the truck with fuel,pre trips,paperwork,add all your driving hrs and hrs spent doing other things then they pay you35cents a mile yourun 2000 miles which really you are driving 2200 because the milage scale they use shorts you.so you make 700 gross minus insurance 30-100 then taxes you bring home 400 450 a week then you have to eat and pay bills at home.you are not a proffessional you are under paid overworked treated like you dont matter they just will get some other sucker to do it for 29cents a mile then in4months they will figuire out they are suckers and quit thats why the company i work for has 200 people a week going through there orientations at 4 diffrent terminals if they would pay you a decent wage for all the hrs you put in say 700 800 week net people might stay in the industry i dont feel proud anymore i feel like im an underpaid sucker in a truck making 6dollars an hr
It is apparent that none of the previous drivers who replied to this story have much of an education: based on their spelling and grammar. How much do you expect to make in the world when you can’t even spell? You get out of life what you put into it. I’ve been enduring this whining and sniveling since I first started driving 13 years ago; it never changes. It’s always the guys that bitch on the CB, hang out at the truck stops and expect bankers hours that bitch the most. I know of few people who make over $50,000 a year that work less than 50 hours a week. Unless maybe you’re some overpaid union scum.
My advice would be to quit sniveling, take off your skirt, put some pants on, go to work, learn new ways to advance in the industry, improve your skills and stop crying like little babies…
Thanks Tom for saying what amounts to the truth. I get sick of hearing drivers bitch that they dont get miles etc. These individuals are the ones bitching around the coffee machine. Can’t get miles standing around flapping your gums. Keep the left door closed. Furthermore,If you dont like your carrier…find another. “I dont get enough loads with this company”. How long you been with them? “5 years”. Dumbass
I like your attitude.I am just getting started in the trucking industry and I live in Canada.It is good to know that after my trucking driving college courses are completed I can do my part and support my family.If you want bread on your table then a man must put his hands to the plow and reap his harvest.An honest days work for an honest days pay.My thoughts on this subject.
Hey Tom, you want truck drivers or english majors, your a clown.
Excellent Tom. If you respect yourself and show pride in your work and truck, then you will be treated different. I have a family that depend on me just like many drivers, but if you do not stand up for yourself when short changed, no one will do it for you. A motivated person can change their circumstances if they really choose too. The DOT will always be there, and more regulations will be put in place and enforced. Change happens. Stop whining, show some pride, and realize that we ARE professionals, so act like it.
I totally agree with you sir~! Really, how can one expect to climb the ladder of sucksess (purposely misspelled) if they are as illiterate as their comments suggest~? And you are also correct in stating that there are drivers out there who make very decent to lucrative livings without grinding out 70+ hours a week. I for one am happy to have recently gotten into the trucking industry, and realize that it is what one puts into it that truly decides what one gets out of it. I plan to make it a career I can be proud of~!
DOUBLE THE WAGE OF TRUCKDRIVERS AND SEE HOW MUCH OF A SHORTAGE THEY HAVE! WHO WANTS TO WORK 16 OR MORE HOURS A DAY AND GET MINIMUM WAGE WITH ABSOLUTELY NO BENEFITS? And then eat the slop they serve at most truckstops, then sleep in a room the size of a shower?
first of all, about 70% of the overtheroad longhaul van drivers are from foreign countries. eastern europe, china, pakis, etc.
second, what defines a shortage? more trucks than they have drivers? truck companies buy too many trucks and treat their drivers with little respect. i think there are too many trucks/drivers now, rates are piss poor. THERE IS NO SHORTAGE.
The only way to make money in trucking is the old fashioned way “earn it”
If there is a shortage, Why is it i can’t get a job? 24 years 2 million miles get laid off take what ever to pay bills for a year and now “Oh you don’t have recent experience” No drugs No accidents. always on time and treated like crap for making ends meet
Never in the history of the US has any one group held so much control in the palms of their hands as do the truck drivers who are too stupid to organize and who can’t agree on the color of the sky. Getting truck drivers to agree on anything is like herding cats.
I realize that most drivers live from paycheck to paycheck and the thought of a nation wide shutdown would mean getting behind on payments and possibly losing everything.
When trucks stop, so would this nation. In 36-48 hours all bread and milk would be gone from store shelves. Are you aware that grocery stores turn the entire contents of their stores every 7 days? In just 7 days truck drivers could bring the US to it’s knees then and only then will you ever be able get the attention of the DOT, FHMCSA, company management, shippers, oil companies and whoever else is connected to the trucking industry.
Yet, you’ll complain to each other on the CB or at truck stops accomplishing absolutely nothing. You complain about unions yet it’s the unions that pay their drivers a liveable wage, file law suits to keep Mexican trucks out of the US, strike unscrupulous employers, provide employees with quality health insurance while you’re still out there everyday driving for 1989 wages i,e, .36 cpm. Any driver with 10 years experience, a perfect driving and employment record should be making no less than .50 cpm.
Just be thankful that stupidity is not terminal, the majority of you would have died years ago.
you dont need to shut down for
if you get the wright people to respresnt
drivers who arent out for the big business
the just sell the drivers short all
of the time there are no driver shortages
just lack of good paying jobs out there
and too many changes now with all the
rule changes on hour of services and more coming and all the wasted time you
spend trying to load and unload
its a real shame that the faa dosent
rule the trucking indurstry like they
do the airlines they can fixe the problems
with work rules
TRUCKING SUCKS PLAIN AND SIMPLE. TOO MUCH WORK TO LITTLE PAY AND :”>?{}_+ TO EAT AT THE TRUCKSTOPS.
AND TREATED AWFUL BY EVERYBODY INVOLVED. !!!!!!!!!
Well the changes in the trucking industry and low pay have me thinking. I make the some money today as I did 20 years ago with weekend off, now its Wed and Thur every other week. So now I’m working on exiting the trucking industry within the year. I’m 41.
Driver shortage,do not believe it. That is what the government,wants you to believe. Just like the biggest scam in the world,global warming. When trucking deregulated in 1980,is when the trucking industry started sliding down hill. We as a society, are at the mercy of government regulations. I will stand at the fuel desk, and see drivers try to pay for fuel, and hand the cashier a piece of paper with there info, because they can not speak ENGLISH. I guess this regulation is not enforced. It will not be long before cap and trade goes through, We will not have to worry about driving a truck, because there will be no more factories open. And if we did want to shut the country down, all we have to do is shut the gas drivers down. Most gas stations would run out in one day. No gas, no diesel, no trucking. And as for Tom Sanderson the wages 30 yrs ago were more then than they are today. And it costs a lot more to run now, then it did then. I have been in this for 27 yrs., and I have never seen it this bad. As for the ATA, all they care about is the big trucking companies, plan and simple. More regulations for the trucking industry. Do not see the government doing anything to the four wheelers. Be suprised if the U.S. is even around in 50 yrs. Time for the states to take back there country ,and tell the federal government, we will not take it anymore.
with all the new rules out here no wonder some driver are fed up.and getting out of trucking deregulations was to get rid of bad driver but what about the bad companys.who hire these cowboy driver for low pay no rules. there are not any good companys out here that care about the drivers wellbeing.no one cares about the drivers time to much sitting and waiting to get loaded and unloaded. low pay and no respect thats all we get im:out.
Tahe big problem is not one of spelling and grammar, it is the fact that 12 out of 14 responses were negative. I have been in trucking for 30 years, and have 1 at fault accident in that time period(the first 90 days). Thats almost 3.5 million miles. I still feel like a little boy who has crapped his pants everytime I meet a cop or DOT cop on the road.What is the obssesion with the government and the public about unsafe trucks? The actual number of fatigue related crashes is 1.4%, not the 31% that is normally quoted(FMCSA data).I work hard, make a decent living, have learned to say no to cheap freight, and expect not to be appreciated. In the past 3 yrs., I have had 14 inspections, 1 out of service. I am unhirable by any company because of the sheer # of inspections. Thats ok, I like having my own authority. If you haul haz-mat or oversize, you too will be stopped alot. So if you hate the profession, or hate truckstops, or hate other drivers you should get out. I find it a challenge.
I see that everyone has their own opinion when it comes to the trucking industry. I say that that in the trucking industries has changed in many ways. I was once home every night and was able to take home 8 and 9 hundred dollars on Friday. I went OTR and the pay is not the same and all the rules and regulations is making it hard for drivers to make a good living in trucking, Drivers say alot,but no one wants to take any action and stand together as drivers.We as drivers can make a different if we stand together and not apart…We need to fight for our rights.
let me tell you what,,,im new in this bussines
only4 months ,but since my first day i here i notice that ,drivers are threthed like shead ,but no one wants to figh for his right ,to recap,drivers need to join ,organize ideas and fight togheter
Truckers stop taking the bad freight. In the last year the rates have went to the toilet. You must understand what your’e operating cost will be to run the load. We all know that everything on a truck cost a lot of money,so think about youre rate before you book. As for fuel surcharge there is no fuel charge for .10cent that is bull…. the fuel caharge can be found on line goole fuel surcharge.
I cant say trucking hasnt changed in the last 28 years my grandfather drove I have been driving since 2001 and they only way I have found to make money is keep the left door shut, fuel at the end of the day or the begining so u dont have to stop,make sure ur truck an trailor an in top condition part of the inspection goes back to the driver did you do a good pretrip or did u just mark a pretrip jump in the driver seat an go
I know, let’s have a spelling contest.
It’s obvious a lot of drivers are not happy.Not
because of the profession,but the industries
keep changing due to political involvement.It will continue to be heavily regulated making it
even more difficult to earn a decent living.I agree with one driver that says we must unite cause we have control over the trucking industry.We are the backbone of the business to say the least and you know this.We all want the
same thing and we perform same task.If you want
to heard and respected,then unity is key.
I drove for almost 12years because i love to drive,meet people,see different places.Like most drivers,harder to make a living and cost of living on the road.Tighter regulations don’t make it easy.I was lucky to get out of the business and i drive a bus locally making the same pay.I will never go back on the road again.I rather flip hamburger.
Yes, Drivers must unite. Whether you drive or are an O/O or have your own authority, we must make sure we contact our representatives in political office and let them know how you feel. It starts there. If you don’t like what they do, exercise your right to vote and get them out of office. Call them over and over until they hear you. Join OOIDA. They have representatives that go to D.C. and stand up for your rights.
Driver shortage….Lets look at why we can’t put new drivers in large trucks shall we? Lets say a driver could find the working conditions to make $900 in a week(lets just say). Well after taxes,food,clothes,*fines,etc…ya get the idea and not one bill has been paid at the house yet. We are the only workers that do not get paid for all time spent away from home! FYI, 168hrs make up a week not 60 not 70….we need to be paid by the hour, all hours because if you did the math at the top you would have notest that we are not even making minimum wage. Doesn’t take long before a new driver figures that one out. You gotta really love what you do or your gonna find something else to do, if DOT doesn’t push ya out first by not letting a company want to take a chance on you because you have too many negative point in one colume or another. Somethings gotta give!
I was in food service for 23 years before I started trucking in 1992. As a chef, one is only good as their last meal. As a driver, one ias only good as their last mile. Life is not fair most of the time and justice will come when God decides. However, there isn’t anybody that is going to pay me 83K/yr. to cook 4 1/2 days a wk. so I’ll stick to barn to barn LTL truckin’ and thank God for blessing me with good health and a great company that makes me able to pay my bills comfortably.
Im a 3rd generation professional truck driver with barely a high school education. I’ve been driving for 17 yrs. The industry has changed…….. yes it has. Everything changes, trucks are better, better hours of service, I think. I keep to my self, keep the left door closed, watch what I spend on the road. Im home about every weekend. I make well over 45,000 a year live in north Florida and pull a flatbed. If you want to be home get a local driving job. If you want the public to respect you then you must first respect yourself. Take a shower everyday. They are free with a 50 gal. fuel purchase. Dress in nice clothes that fit. No flip flood or jesus sandles. Learn proper grammar. Get off the phone an take off the stuid looking “boom mics” y’all look like Michael Jackson or Garth Brooks. But deodorant and shampoo. My last idea is to not belly up to the buffet bat for 3 nights a week take the money you save and your nasty ass truck to the Streakin Beacon an get it washed. All this and the D.O.T. will more than likely leave you alone, like they do me. This is just my opinion of what’s “wrong” with the trucking industry. BLACKSHEEP Lawtey, Fla.
I have proper grammar but like all of us I am human an the phone likes to misspell words.for me. I apologize for the misspellings
Pay cuts,PerDeim,driving 1400 miles,only getting paided 1150,its like ur working 11 hrs @8 hr.PAY.NO Hometime,34 restart
Yall truckers are like gazelle. Wise up and kill the tiger. Go on strike, you’d have the govt by the nads within a week. Folks don’t realize, 95% of the stuff we have, came by truck! Especially the railroad commission. Ever wonder who thought up some of the ridiculous regulations, and got them passed into law? Check into it: wasn’t the libtards. The railroad commission would love to squelch the trucking industry.
They don’t want the truckers of yesterday, they have harassed the experience drivers right out of the business, because they know they can’t lie to them.
Recruiters are lower than a slug, just another used car salesman.
I see you didn’t publish my last comment, because, I assume,you didn’t like what I had to say about lieing recruiters. That is ok with me because the more I tell the truth the more people try to hide from it, also it shows what side you are on. Believe me when I tell you,I don’t need truckers news to get my points across.It is the truck driver that is reading your publication not the companies,I think you know which one they are reading.
I actually had alot more to say but your not worth my time.
We talk about the need for truckers to ban together. These new Hours of service rules help unions get dues. The big boys have a way to ban when it is to thier advantage. If every driver wrote there congressman and senators asking them to fill out a log with the rules drivers have to comply with, most of those completing a log would be cited and put out of service for not following the rules and if their livelyhood depended on doing a log they would be unemployed for lack of income. Those trying to write these laws have never driven a truck and have no clue of a living income from real work.
I like responding to these stories. I here the drivers who have something constructive to say and then their are the other driver. Make this job better and do this for yourself. Rather you drive yours or theirs if the people you work for don’t know what you are working for then tell them but what ever you do and what ever you want to do. Don’t tell someone you will then don’t. Do the job and stop lying to yourself and others. If you say you will and then something happens that you cannot tell the truth. Don’t stop at the truck stop and spend half the day and then tell dispatch that you just could not make it. If you don’t like the truck stop food that is offered today then go park at Wal Mart or something and leave the truckstop for thoughs who enjoy what we have today compared to what we use to have. The number one item that has yet to change is the lyes. When the lyes end the work will get better. Trucking is a good living but it is the choice of the individual if you like the work than work. If you don’t like the job then go do something else. OOIDA is a good part of this industry. Started by persons who have not only seen problems but also lived a lot of them join and get the group to work. As truck drivers we have to set a standard and get rid of the lyes
Driver shortage thats the funniest storie i heard,
why doestnt the industrie start counting on the drivers that left to go back to work for industries, and how many people that as there CDL in north america that doesnt want to go back cause of the all the inmposed regulation on to them and the regulation that will come in the futur.
the only compagnies that are screeming that theres no drivers is the one that dont give a decent pay. its this company in Colorado compagnie, there requiremnt mountain driver, winter over the weekend for .23 miles come on, there is no driver shortage and will nerver be a driver shortage, this is just a attempts by the industrie to get a programme up to hiring mexicain to work for Americain and Canadian truck compagnie so that they can get cheap labor at less then .15 a miles.
Canada already doing it with England drivers they get grants worth half the salary of a foreign driver, end if you work for one of these guys the english guys as priority before you on a load even if you been waiting longer then them cause there cheaper labor.
I am really getting sick of this BS “driver shortage”Crap. There is no shortage of drivers,only good companies to drive for.When trucking companies stop screwing their drivers then they wont have any problem KEEPING THEM!
These companies keep blacklisting the experienced drivers because they won’t drive for nothing,so there probably is a shortage of experiences drivers,oh well.