According to the latest Bloomberg | Truckstop survey of owner-operators and small fleet carriers, 65% believe that tariffs may hinder the industry. Despite this, a majority remain optimistic about short-term, with 62% expecting sustained demand and 55% bullish about rate growth.
"Carriers aren't turning a blind eye to the potential volatility that could arise from tariffs," said Lee Klaskow, senior freight transportation and logistics analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence. "However, most carriers believe rates and volumes still have some room to grow and many believe that the worst of the challenging freight conditions may be over."
The survey shows:
- Carriers show resilience: While many carriers remain optimistic that demand and rate recovery may be on the horizon, there are also concerns about the potential impact of the new administration's policies on the freight landscape. Despite uncertainties, carriers remain committed to the industry. Fifty-seven percent of respondents plan to stay on as either owner-operators or company drivers, a seven-percentage point increase compared to the Q4 2024 survey.
- Stronger truckload demand in the near term: Truckload volumes showed modest improvement in the first quarter, with 25% of respondents reporting year-over-year load growth — an increase of 11 percentage points compared to our fourth-quarter poll. Demand growth also outperformed typical seasonal trends, which we attribute to pull-forward activity ahead of anticipated tariffs. Carriers remain optimistic that U.S. policies will boost domestic freight activity, largely looking past inflation concerns. In fact, 62% of respondents expect demand to increase over the next three to six months, up seven-percentage points from the fourth quarter.
- Carriers optimistic about future spot rates: Carriers are showing greater optimism about spot rates compared to the fourth quarter, with 55% now expecting an increase over the next three to six months — a four-percentage point improvement from our previous survey. This uptick in sentiment likely reflects a more favorable rate environment in the first quarter, as 19% of carriers reported year-over-year rate improvements, up six percentage points from the fourth-quarter survey.
The sample size of the survey was 200, consisting of dry-van, flatbed, temperature-controlled and specialized/diversified, hot-shot and step-deck carriers. Of the respondents, 50% operate just one tractor.
