Two recent surveys found carriers and brokers were optimistic earlier this year despite the continuing freight recession.
The two surveys were conducted by truckstop.com and Bloomberg Intelligence, and also reveal confidence in the second half of the year.
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“Many carriers and brokers remained optimistic through the first half of 2025 despite facing difficulties,” said Todd Markusic, Customer Insights Manager at truckstop.com. “While the freight market underperformed in the second quarter, with no clear resolution for how tariffs will impact the economy, many in the industry are expecting a recovery in the next six months.”
Eighty-five percent of carriers and 83% of brokers believe volume will be either up or remain flat over the next six months. This optimism prevails despite only 16% of carriers and 36% of brokers reporting year-over-year revenue growth—a drop from previous quarters, according to truckstop.com and Bloomberg.
Among carriers:
- 17% said rates have improved since the second quarter of 2024, and 42% expect rates to rise in the third quarter (down 13 points from the first quarter)
- 56% believe load volumes during 2Q25 were up or flat compared to the same period last year
- Nearly half (48%) are unsure when rates will bottom out, a 7-point increase from Q1, yet 84% think rates will go up or stay flat over the next 6 months
- Similarly, 79% expect their revenues to remain stable or increase for the next six months
Among brokers:
- Comparing the first half of 2025 to the same period last year, 39% of brokers said spot rates were up, and 78% said contract rates were up
- Revenues went up or stayed flat for 72% during the first half of 2025 compared to the same period last year
- 84% expect spot rates to remain stable or increase in the next six months; 80% expect contract rates to do the same.
- Most are working on a 15% gross margin, and 69% believe their current margin is higher in the first half of 2025 compared to the first and second halves of 2024.
- 82% percent expect their gross margins to increase or stay flat in the next 6 months.
Carriers and brokers have different expectations for demand in the next six months based on their experiences in the first half of 2025, according to truckstop.com and Bloomberg:
- 19% of carriers say load volumes are up year-over-year, while 37% of brokers reported higher load volumes.
- 52% of carriers expect demand to increase in the next 3–6 months, while 83% of brokers believe demand will be either up or flat over the next 6 months.
Despite the positive outlook, short-term financial pressures are causing many carriers and brokers to defer investments in equipment and human capital:
- Only 21% of carriers plan to purchase new equipment, down from 38% in the first quarter
- 40% of brokerage firms expect to hire more brokers in 2025, compared to 52% in December 2024
Carriers blame tariffs for delaying a rebound in freight demand and rates. Thirty-eight percent now believe tariffs will significantly hurt the industry, up from 30% last quarter. Overall, 55% say tariffs will have at least some negative impact.
Brokers have also soured on policies from the new administration. In December, 74% thought the administration would be good for trucking. Six months later, only 44% hold this same belief.
The carrier survey included responses from 204 firms (75% of whom operate five or fewer trucks). Flatbed carriers comprised the most significant segment at 49%. The broker survey had 185 responses from freight forwarders, third-party logistics providers, broker agents, as well as asset- and non-asset-based firms. Brokerages with 1-50 employees accounted for 68% of respondents.
